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The truth is, with the players being drafted this late, or not being drafted at all in more shallow leagues, it can feel like throwing darts to identify a “sleeper” of any real value. I’m defining my players by their ADP (~200), lack of buzz, and potential to become the best surprises of 2023. Yes, a lot of things have to go right for that to happen, but the purpose here is to prime your mind on these names so that with the first sign of increased opportunity or standout production, you’ll be ready to pounce while your leaguemates ignore the trend or demand more proof.
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Sam Howell, QB, WAS (ADP: QB27, pick No. 215)
When you think about Washington, there’s significant hype around Jahan Dotson, and rightfully so. I’ve written a little bit about Brian Robinson Jr. this summer, and the “veterans” of this offense — Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Antonio Gibson — are known commodities getting almost no offseason press in fantasy circles. On paper, the Commanders are a young, skilled group without consistently good QB play and who have had to deal with major dysfunction in the organization.
Howell enters his second year with the team under new management and with a spirit of optimism. He played only one game last year, in which he notably ran for 35 yards and a touchdown while throwing for 169 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Not a bad debut — it was good for nearly 20 fantasy points.
In college at North Carolina, Howell was also an effective rusher (829 rushing yards and 11 TDs his final year), but he’s not being seriously considered as a late-round path to that dual-threat QB fantasy gold. In the Commanders’ first preseason game, Howell completed 9 of 12 passes for 77 yards and a touchdown while rushing once for eight yards. His rating in the shortened outing, by no means a perfect metric, was 119.1, and afterward he was named the Commanders’ starting QB. He helped validate that decision in his second preseason appearance, going 19-for-25 for 188 passing yards and two touchdown passes (0 INTs) on Monday night against Baltimore. Howell is being drafted as the 27th QB off the boards, which means he isn’t even slated to start in 2QB or SuperFlex leagues. He’s someone to draft and wait on in those leagues, but even single QB league managers should be ready to pick him up if Washington’s offense starts the season hot.
Devin Duvernay, WR, BAL (ADP: WR110, No. 316)
The Ravens are poised to again be a top-scoring offense behind a fully healthy Lamar Jackson. Jackson and Mark Andrews are flying off draft boards by Round 4, at the latest, but correctly picking a Ravens receiver has been a losing battle for fantasy managers more often than not. While I like Odell Beckham Jr. as a bounce-back candidate, know that 2021 first-rounder Rashod Bateman is finally healthy, and believe in hot rookie Zay Flowers as the capable slot receiver, I’m not writing Duvernay off entirely. This is his fourth year in the league, and he has yet to make a significant fantasy impact. He is definitely in the “name to watch” category and not the “wasted late round pick” category.
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Here’s why I like his potential to come alive later in the season: 1) In 2022, Duvernay ranked second among WRs in fantasy points per target, with 2.37, 2) he led all receivers in contested catch rate (83.3 percent), and 3) he was a state champion sprinter in high school. The downside here is that those impressive efficiency numbers come from such a small sample size. I’m not trying to artificially inflate Duvernay’s value, but if the situation arises where he gets significant playing time and targets, he has the skills to beat defenders at the point of catch and burn them with his speed. He could be a touchdown machine later in the season if Beckham, in particular, were to miss any time.
Josh Downs, WR, IND (ADP: WR89, No. 225)
Downs is currently listed behind former Bill Isaiah McKenzie at the slot receiver position, but the Colts’ beat doesn’t necessarily expect that to stick. Downs was a third-round pick this past spring, falling mostly due to his smaller stature (5-foot-10, 171 pounds), and he’s been largely overshadowed by Anthony Richardson in rookie discussions. The addition of Richardson and new head coach Shane Steichen have even me — a die-hard Colts eye roller when it comes to fantasy — a little bit excited for 2023.
At camp, Downs has been a hard worker, efficient and a quick study. He’s also bonded with Richardson off the field as his training camp roommate. Downs went from two catches on two targets in the Colts’ first preseason game to two catches on three targets in the second. McKenzie dropped from four targets to zero in the second showing, which on its own is meaningless. However, with a history of mediocrity in Buffalo, I could see the Colts relegating McKenzie to a backup role while developing the young rookie Downs. With two more weeks to the start of the season, Downs is a name I’m watching now. If named the starting slot receiver, Downs is a player I’ll target late in drafts, especially if I take Richardson as my QB2 in a SuperFlex league. He’s also a nice upside player to consider in best ball drafts.
Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN — (ADP: RB60, No. 186)
I had the pleasure of writing the “Do not draft” article for our fantasy magazine this summer and one of the players I’m out on in the first or second round is Derrick Henry. This is no disrespect to what Henry has accomplished in his stellar career — an average of over 1000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns per season, including his first two years when he only started two games per season. The 2022 campaign was statistically his third-best season behind his peak in 2019-2020. My point with Henry is that after averaging nearly 300 carries per season over the past five years, at age 29, working behind the worst-ranked offensive line for 2023, we have seen his best fantasy numbers. Decline is inevitable and I, for one, refuse to invest in that inevitability in the first two rounds of my fantasy drafts.
Enter Spears, who would almost certainly be the beneficiary of any such injury or decline in production for the Titans. Spears would be subject to the same concerns on the OL, but his youth and talent could make an immediate impact should he be called upon to step in at running back. Spears has a classic running back build with explosive speed, he easily changes pace and direction,and also brings good hands as a receiver to the position, something the Titans have not been able to exploit with Henry very often. He’s impressed in training camp and during the first two preseason games, where he has averaged 6.8 YPC, scored once, and caught both of his targets. I’m not an auto-handcuff drafter, but if you pick Henry, you need to be the one to reach for Spears.
(Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)
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