(NOTE: Updated through Ravens’ win over 49ers on Monday)
Week 16 of the NFL season began with 22 teams still vying for the final 10 playoff spots across the two conferences. Through Mondays, it’s now 18 teams vying for eight remaining playoff spots: six teams have clinched playoff berths (including the 49ers and Lions who also clinched division titles) and eight teams have been eliminated from contention.
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Clinched playoff berth
NFC
AFC
Eliminated from playoff contention
NFC
AFC
To assess the crowded NFL playoff picture, The Athletic’s NFL projection model quantifies each team’s chances of reaching the postseason by projecting the score for every remaining game along with the resulting team win percentages. We then run that simulation 100,000 times to determine each team’s current playoff chances.
Teams are listed below in order of their likelihood of reaching the playoffs, according to the model.

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AFC
Conference Seed
1
Record
12-3
Remaining Schedule Strength
13
Expected Wins
13.3
Clinched
AFC
North

Conference Seed
2
Record
11-4
Remaining Schedule Strength
2
Expected Wins
12.0
Clinched
AFC
East

Conference Seed
5
Record
10-5
Remaining Schedule Strength
26
Expected Wins
11.2
In the playoffs
AFC
North

Conference Seed
3
Remaining Schedule Strength
27
Expected Wins
10.6
In the playoffs
AFC
West

Conference Seed
6
Remaining Schedule Strength
12
Expected Wins
10.3
In the playoffs
AFC
East

Conference Seed
7
Remaining Schedule Strength
25
Expected Wins
9.1
In the playoffs
AFC
South

Conference Seed
4
Remaining Schedule Strength
31
Expected Wins
9.3
In the playoffs
AFC
South

Conference Seed
8
Remaining Schedule Strength
24
Expected Wins
9.1
Not in the playoffs
AFC
South

Conference Seed
9
Remaining Schedule Strength
4
Expected Wins
8.5
Not in the playoffs
AFC
North

Conference Seed
11
Remaining Schedule Strength
17
Expected Wins
7.9
Not in the playoffs
AFC
West

Conference Seed
10
Remaining Schedule Strength
3
Expected Wins
8.7
Not in the playoffs
AFC
North

Conference Seed
12
Remaining Schedule Strength
28
Expected Wins
8.2
Not in the playoffs
AFC
West

Conference Seed
13
Remaining Schedule Strength
18
Expected Wins
6.8
Eliminated
AFC
East

Conference Seed
14
Record
5-10
Remaining Schedule Strength
16
Expected Wins
5.8
Eliminated
AFC
South

Conference Seed
15
Record
5-10
Remaining Schedule Strength
5
Expected Wins
5.5
Eliminated
AFC
West

Conference Seed
16
Record
4-11
Remaining Schedule Strength
11
Expected Wins
4.7
Eliminated
AFC
East

NFC
Conference Seed
1
Record
11-4
Remaining Schedule Strength
20
Expected Wins
12.6
Clinched
NFC
West

Conference Seed
2
Record
11-4
Remaining Schedule Strength
32
Expected Wins
12.6
Clinched
NFC
East

Conference Seed
5
Record
10-5
Remaining Schedule Strength
15
Expected Wins
11.4
Clinched
NFC
East

Conference Seed
3
Record
11-4
Remaining Schedule Strength
6
Expected Wins
12.0
Clinched
NFC
North

Conference Seed
4
Remaining Schedule Strength
30
Expected Wins
9.3
In the playoffs
NFC
South

Conference Seed
7
Remaining Schedule Strength
29
Expected Wins
9.4
In the playoffs
NFC
West

Conference Seed
6
Remaining Schedule Strength
7
Expected Wins
9.0
In the playoffs
NFC
West

Conference Seed
10
Remaining Schedule Strength
22
Expected Wins
8.0
Not in the playoffs
NFC
North

Conference Seed
8
Remaining Schedule Strength
10
Expected Wins
7.8
Not in the playoffs
NFC
North

Conference Seed
9
Remaining Schedule Strength
21
Expected Wins
8.0
Not in the playoffs
NFC
South

Conference Seed
11
Remaining Schedule Strength
19
Expected Wins
7.9
Not in the playoffs
NFC
South

Conference Seed
12
Remaining Schedule Strength
23
Expected Wins
7.0
Not in the playoffs
NFC
North

Conference Seed
13
Record
5-10
Remaining Schedule Strength
8
Expected Wins
5.5
Eliminated
NFC
East

Conference Seed
14
Record
4-11
Remaining Schedule Strength
1
Expected Wins
4.4
Eliminated
NFC
East

Conference Seed
15
Record
3-12
Remaining Schedule Strength
9
Expected Wins
3.5
Eliminated
NFC
West

Conference Seed
16
Record
2-13
Remaining Schedule Strength
13
Expected Wins
2.5
Eliminated
NFC
South

(Top photo of Lamar Jackson: David Rosenblum / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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