NFL Week 16 playoff standings and projections: Which teams have best chance to make postseason?

June 2024 · 4 minute read

(NOTE: Updated through Ravens’ win over 49ers on Monday)

Week 16 of the NFL season began with 22 teams still vying for the final 10 playoff spots across the two conferences. Through Mondays, it’s now 18 teams vying for eight remaining playoff spots: six teams have clinched playoff berths (including the 49ers and Lions who also clinched division titles) and eight teams have been eliminated from contention.

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Clinched playoff berth

NFC

AFC

Eliminated from playoff contention

NFC

AFC

To assess the crowded NFL playoff picture, The Athletic’s NFL projection model quantifies each team’s chances of reaching the postseason by projecting the score for every remaining game along with the resulting team win percentages. We then run that simulation 100,000 times to determine each team’s current playoff chances.

Teams are listed below in order of their likelihood of reaching the playoffs, according to the model.

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AFC

Conference Seed

1

Record

12-3

Remaining Schedule Strength

13

Expected Wins

13.3

Clinched

AFC

North

Conference Seed

2

Record

11-4

Remaining Schedule Strength

2

Expected Wins

12.0

Clinched

AFC

East

Conference Seed

5

Record

10-5

Remaining Schedule Strength

26

Expected Wins

11.2

In the playoffs

AFC

North

Conference Seed

3

Remaining Schedule Strength

27

Expected Wins

10.6

In the playoffs

AFC

West

Conference Seed

6

Remaining Schedule Strength

12

Expected Wins

10.3

In the playoffs

AFC

East

Conference Seed

7

Remaining Schedule Strength

25

Expected Wins

9.1

In the playoffs

AFC

South

Conference Seed

4

Remaining Schedule Strength

31

Expected Wins

9.3

In the playoffs

AFC

South

Conference Seed

8

Remaining Schedule Strength

24

Expected Wins

9.1

Not in the playoffs

AFC

South

Conference Seed

9

Remaining Schedule Strength

4

Expected Wins

8.5

Not in the playoffs

AFC

North

Conference Seed

11

Remaining Schedule Strength

17

Expected Wins

7.9

Not in the playoffs

AFC

West

Conference Seed

10

Remaining Schedule Strength

3

Expected Wins

8.7

Not in the playoffs

AFC

North

Conference Seed

12

Remaining Schedule Strength

28

Expected Wins

8.2

Not in the playoffs

AFC

West

Conference Seed

13

Remaining Schedule Strength

18

Expected Wins

6.8

Eliminated

AFC

East

Conference Seed

14

Record

5-10

Remaining Schedule Strength

16

Expected Wins

5.8

Eliminated

AFC

South

Conference Seed

15

Record

5-10

Remaining Schedule Strength

5

Expected Wins

5.5

Eliminated

AFC

West

Conference Seed

16

Record

4-11

Remaining Schedule Strength

11

Expected Wins

4.7

Eliminated

AFC

East

NFC

Conference Seed

1

Record

11-4

Remaining Schedule Strength

20

Expected Wins

12.6

Clinched

NFC

West

Conference Seed

2

Record

11-4

Remaining Schedule Strength

32

Expected Wins

12.6

Clinched

NFC

East

Conference Seed

5

Record

10-5

Remaining Schedule Strength

15

Expected Wins

11.4

Clinched

NFC

East

Conference Seed

3

Record

11-4

Remaining Schedule Strength

6

Expected Wins

12.0

Clinched

NFC

North

Conference Seed

4

Remaining Schedule Strength

30

Expected Wins

9.3

In the playoffs

NFC

South

Conference Seed

7

Remaining Schedule Strength

29

Expected Wins

9.4

In the playoffs

NFC

West

Conference Seed

6

Remaining Schedule Strength

7

Expected Wins

9.0

In the playoffs

NFC

West

Conference Seed

10

Remaining Schedule Strength

22

Expected Wins

8.0

Not in the playoffs

NFC

North

Conference Seed

8

Remaining Schedule Strength

10

Expected Wins

7.8

Not in the playoffs

NFC

North

Conference Seed

9

Remaining Schedule Strength

21

Expected Wins

8.0

Not in the playoffs

NFC

South

Conference Seed

11

Remaining Schedule Strength

19

Expected Wins

7.9

Not in the playoffs

NFC

South

Conference Seed

12

Remaining Schedule Strength

23

Expected Wins

7.0

Not in the playoffs

NFC

North

Conference Seed

13

Record

5-10

Remaining Schedule Strength

8

Expected Wins

5.5

Eliminated

NFC

East

Conference Seed

14

Record

4-11

Remaining Schedule Strength

1

Expected Wins

4.4

Eliminated

NFC

East

Conference Seed

15

Record

3-12

Remaining Schedule Strength

9

Expected Wins

3.5

Eliminated

NFC

West

Conference Seed

16

Record

2-13

Remaining Schedule Strength

13

Expected Wins

2.5

Eliminated

NFC

South

(Top photo of Lamar Jackson: David Rosenblum / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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