
UFC 292 is on the horizon in Boston, which will be headlined by Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley for the bantamweight championship. We also have the women’s strawweight title on the line, between Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos, along with some other great matchups on the card. It should be a great night of fights.
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As usual, I will be breaking down a few fights from this slate from a betting perspective, coming off a card which hit a longshot on Holland to win by submission. And if I miss anything you’d like to chat about, feel free to shoot me a comment below.
If you want full breakdowns for every fight on every card, you can always find that on my site DailyFanMMA, or follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley for more information.
Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley
The Sugar Show is finally here, as O’Malley, a superstar-in-the-making, will make his first attempt at championship gold on Saturday against the reigning title holder Sterling.
| Aljamain Sterling | Sean O'Malley | |
|---|---|---|
Odds | -250 | +200 |
SSLpM | 4.78 | 7.43 |
SApM | 2.37 | 3.54 |
Striking Defense | 58% | 62% |
Takedowns/15 min. | 2.02 | 0.45 |
Takedown Defense | 45% | 60% |
O’Malley earned this opportunity with a victory over Petr Yan back in October, and he had previously knocked out six consecutive opponents from 2020-21. The kid is a dangerous, lengthy striker who can land in volume and inflict damage.
In fact, I think it’s important to note just how good O’Malley’s metrics have been in the UFC. He’s landing 7.43 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.54 per minute at a 62 percent defensive rate. That’s very strong, and his head strike defense has been especially strong. Metrics like that indicate a fighter who can win rounds on the feet at a very high rate, or at least remain competitive with most.
O’Malley will have his work cut out for him though against Sterling, who presents a much different type of challenge than past opponents.
While Sterling is a capable striker, too, his best skill set comes on the mat, where he’s a very strong wrestler and submission grappler. He averages more than two takedowns landed per 15 minutes and is an elite back-taker in scrambles.
Sterling is coming off a win over Henry Cejudo, too, which in part came on the mat. He also has impressive ground finishes over Cory Sandhagen and TJ Dillashaw. That’s where I see his real advantage against O’Malley, who is not a strong defensive wrestler.
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We haven’t seen a super large sample of grappling from O’Malley, but I’ve seen enough to be concerned for him in this matchup. He just gave up six takedowns to Petr Yan, and I didn’t love his first-level takedown defense.
His pure jiu-jitsu is fine, he’s actually a brown belt and I think quite decent on the mat. But I don’t believe he has the tools to consistently keep the fight upright, or get back up easily once he’s taken down.
That’s simply going to be a problem for him against Sterling, who likely can take him down early. O’Malley has shown willingness to play guard in the past, which means Sterling can likely control him for several minutes.
And if O’Malley tries to stand back up, he’ll likely present an opportunity for Sterling to take his back. Essentially, I believe O’Malley needs to keep the fight upright to win.
If he can do that, he’ll have a legitimate chance to win rounds, or hurt Sterling. However, even on the feet, Sterling defends strikes at 58 percent and only absorbs 2.37 strikes per minute. He has leg kicks that could affect O’Malley at distance.
Sterling has more paths to victory and holds the biggest advantage of the two, which is on the ground. I favor him moderately in this matchup and I think it’s possible he wins dominantly on Saturday.
On BetMGM, Sterling is -250 to win, which is an implied win rate of 71.43 percent, so the public is clued into his stylistic advantages in the matchup.
It’s hard to argue there’s much value left on this line, though Sterling is a fighter I feel relatively comfortable with choosing this weekend. If you’re looking for a longer shot, I don’t mind Sterling by submission at +175 or better.
Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos
This should be an action-packed co-main event for the strawweight championship. Zhang regained her belt last November with a victory over Carla Esparza, which has her sitting at -300 on BetMGM in this title fight against Lemos. It’s high praise from the public, against an opponent who has proven herself to be quite dangerous.
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Lemos is coming off a knockout win over the formerly hyped up Marina Rodriguez, and she’s earned five victories inside the distance in seven UFC victories. She’s an explosive and dangerous fighter while she’s fresh. Lemos knocked down four consecutive opponents from 2020-21, and that doesn’t even include her TKO against Rodriguez.
That power separates her from most in this strawweight division and it will definitely be a factor here against Zhang, who has already been KOd in round one in a previous loss.
| Zhang Weili | Amanda Lemos | |
|---|---|---|
Odds | -300 | +250 |
SSLpM | 5.79 | 4.51 |
SApM | 4.06 | 3.97 |
Striking Defense | 53% | 50% |
Takedowns/15 min. | 1.97 | 1.12 |
Takedown Defense | 66% | 81% |
The downside to Lemos also comes from her style, which is that the longer the fight lasts, the less explosive she will be. It’s simply difficult to retain explosive movements for a long period of time, and we’ve seen Lemos slow down pretty drastically at times.
Against an opponent like Zhang, who has competed in multiple five-round contests, and lands more than 5.5 significant strikes per minute, it’s tough to imagine Lemos keeping up with her pace for long.
That’s really the biggest advantage I see for Zhang, who arguably could dominate the championship rounds once Lemos is tired. Then again, Zhang slowed down late against Rose Namajunas and arguably lost the championship rounds to Joanna Jedrzejczyk so I’m not ultra-confident that Zhang is deserving of such a hefty price tag.
While Lemos is fresh, this fight projects to be competitive. Lemos has the physicality and power to compete with Zhang early, and it’s possible that leads to damage.
Lemos also can grapple a little bit, and defends takedowns at 81 percent, while Zhang defends them at 66 percent. There’s no guarantee that Zhang wins wrestling exchanges early, or that she’ll even attempt them.
It could honestly lead to a more competitive fight than the public is expecting. However, unless Lemos can finish Zhang early, it’s tough to project her for much win equity. Taking five rounds against Zhang would be a surprise, and it’s potentially realistic to believe Lemos barely has the cardio to last that duration.
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It’s the main reason why Zhang is favored at such a high price tag. Personally, I’m not looking to use her as a bet or in parlay legs, and I might argue that Lemos is the value side at +250.
But considering both of Lemos’ losses have come early inside the distance, I don’t mind taking a chance on Weili to win inside the distance, which I see down to -130 on some books. Lemos’ most clear path to victory is also inside the distance, which you can find at +350.
Karine Silva vs. Maryna Moroz
While there aren’t too many fights I’m excited about from a betting perspective, I do have some interest in our preliminary opener between Karine Silva and Maryna Moroz.
Silva is undefeated in the UFC with a 2-0 record, and she has earned two first-round finishes against Poliana Botelho and Ketlen Souza.
That’s been the story of her professional career though, as Silva is 16-4 with all 16 wins coming in Round 1 or Round 2. She has some power in her hands, a respectable takedown game and good submission ability.
The issues have always come when she doesn’t get that quick finish. Silva has been finished in three of her four losses, and she lost her only decision as well.
Even on the Contender Series, Silva was losing. She was held down for much of the first round and looked really tired. She jumped on a guillotine to start the second round, but if she didn’t secure that, she likely would have lost.
It just presents another opportunity for me to look toward a long term fade on Silva, until she proves capable of winning rounds consistently and shows improved cardio. For now, I’ll consider her relatively dependent on winning early in fights.
| Karine Silva | Maryna Moroz | |
|---|---|---|
Odds | -140 | +115 |
SSLpM | 2.39 | 4.19 |
SApM | 3.43 | 4.36 |
Striking Defense | 35% | 53% |
Takedowns/15 min. | 2.24 | 0.69 |
Takedown Defense | 0% | 47% |
Moroz is a relatively well-rounded fighter, though one with a capped ceiling in this division. I wouldn’t consider Moroz a great athlete, or a deadly striker or grappler. Those things hold her back in the long run.
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But she can produce offense at a decent rate, and she does have cardio to go the distance. She’s also never lost by knockout or submission in a 15-fight career.
Moroz recently beat Mayra Bueno Silva who may be competing for a title soon, outlanding her 139 to 88 with two takedowns included. She went the distance with Angela Hill and Jennifer Maia. It makes me wonder if Silva can’t get a quick finish, will Moroz will simply outpace her over the distance?
These two actually fought back in 2014, and Moroz won by first-round submission. I don’t want to make that a key point of the analysis, but perhaps it’s important.
I do think Silva will have opportunities here early as the more physical fighter. She might land takedowns against Moroz, who only defends at 47 percent. Maybe it just leads to a quick sub.
I would tend not to bet on those outcomes at a very high rate, though, and it’s possible Moroz has a very big advantage in round-winning potential and cardio.
Moroz is currently +115 to win on BetMGM, but she’s up to +130 on other books, which I think makes for an interesting betting option. If I was on Silva here, I’d be aiming to play her to win inside the distance at +165, or even looking at a deep shot like +400 to win in the first round.
Ultimately, I have to lean toward the more proven fighter here in Moroz who has never been finished and has gone the distance many times. I respect the finishing ability of Silva though, so it should be a fun matchup for as long as it lasts.
(Photo of Aljamain Sterling: Louis Grasse / PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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